Uncertain technology evolution and decision making in design
By: Arendt, Jonathan L
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Contributor(s): McAdams, Daniel A.
Publisher: New York ASME 2012Edition: Vol.134(10), Oct.Description: 1-11p.Subject(s): Mechanical EngineeringOnline resources: Click here
In:
Journal of mechanical designSummary: The potential for engineering technology to evolve over time can be a critical consideration in design decisions that involve long-term commitments. Investments in manufacturing equipment, contractual relationships, and other factors can make it difficult for engineering firms to backtrack once they have chosen one technology over others. Although engineering technologies tend to improve in performance over time, competing technologies can evolve at different rates and details about how a technology might evolve are generally uncertain. In this article we present a general framework for modeling and making decisions about evolving technologies under uncertainty. In this research, the evolution of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; the performance evolves slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits.
| Item type | Current location | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds |
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Articles Abstract Database
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School of Engineering & Technology Archieval Section | Not for loan | 2024-0735 |
The potential for engineering technology to evolve over time can be a critical consideration in design decisions that involve long-term commitments. Investments in manufacturing equipment, contractual relationships, and other factors can make it difficult for engineering firms to backtrack once they have chosen one technology over others. Although engineering technologies tend to improve in performance over time, competing technologies can evolve at different rates and details about how a technology might evolve are generally uncertain. In this article we present a general framework for modeling and making decisions about evolving technologies under uncertainty. In this research, the evolution of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; the performance evolves slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits.
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