Comparative Study of Risk Indices for Infrastructure Transportation Project Using Different Methods
- Vol. 100(2), June
- New York Springer 2019
- 275-286p.
This paper is an attempt to develop and compare the risk indices developed by various methods of project risk analysis like modified expected value method, fuzzy expected value method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for an elevated metro rail corridor construction project in Bangalore, India. Risk management is increasingly a critical success factor for major infrastructure projects. It helps to identify, analyse, mitigate and control the risks associated with project cost, schedule and scope. Infrastructure projects are usually faced by different types of risks associated with different types of activities which finally lead to cost and time overrun. The main purpose of this work was to identify the risks and uncertainties associated with major activities of an infrastructure project like elevated metro rail corridor project and then analyse for risk severity and risk index through three different methods. It has been observed that fuzzy expected value method is more sensitive than the other two methods, and the computed values of risk indices predict risk severities which can be ranked according to criticality for almost all the identified activities. Thus, project authorities can easily take necessary mitigation measures to reduce the risk severities. Also, fuzzy expected value method gives good results for both small and large number of activities, whilst modified expected value method works well for up to 25 activities and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process works well for up to 20 activities.