Energy is the backbone of a country’s economic and technological
development. For a country to be competitive in the global market and
secure sustainable development, energy must be efficiently used. The
Philippines’s main source of energy is coal. Historical data shows that
the country’s energy and coal consumption has been continuously
increasing. With this, careful energy planning is required to develop
policies that ensure sufficient energy supply in the future. This paper
focuses on forecasting coal production and consumption in the
Philippines. For the purpose of forecasting, the autoregressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied to reveal that
ARIMA (1, 2, 0) is the best model to forecast coal production. For coal
consumption, the best model identified was ARIMA (0, 2, 1). The
models have undergone residual analyses and forecast evaluations to
ensure that the ‘best’ models found are statistically appropriate models.
The forecasts show that in the following years, Philippine coal
production will decrease, while the coal consumption rate will increase.
In addition, it is predicted that the Philippines will need to import a total
of 133.1983 MMT of coal to meet the coal consumption from 2021 to
2025.