000			a
999			_c19046 _d19046
003			OSt
005			20230327101036.0
008			230327b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aAIKTC-KRRC _cAIKTC-KRRC
100			_920279 _aParreño, Samuel John E.
245			_aApplication of time series analysis in forecasting coal production and consumption in the philippines
250			_aVol.13(1), Oct
260			_aChennai _bICT Academy _c2022
300			_a2798-2804p.
520			_aEnergy is the backbone of a country’s economic and technological development. For a country to be competitive in the global market and secure sustainable development, energy must be efficiently used. The Philippines’s main source of energy is coal. Historical data shows that the country’s energy and coal consumption has been continuously increasing. With this, careful energy planning is required to develop policies that ensure sufficient energy supply in the future. This paper focuses on forecasting coal production and consumption in the Philippines. For the purpose of forecasting, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied to reveal that ARIMA (1, 2, 0) is the best model to forecast coal production. For coal consumption, the best model identified was ARIMA (0, 2, 1). The models have undergone residual analyses and forecast evaluations to ensure that the ‘best’ models found are statistically appropriate models. The forecasts show that in the following years, Philippine coal production will decrease, while the coal consumption rate will increase. In addition, it is predicted that the Philippines will need to import a total of 133.1983 MMT of coal to meet the coal consumption from 2021 to 2025.
650		0	_94622 _aComputer Engineering
773	0		_tICTACT Journal on Soft Computing (IJSC) _dChennai ICT Academy
856			_uhttps://ictactjournals.in/paper/IJSC_Vol_13_Iss_1_Paper_8_2798_2804.pdf _yClick here
942			_2ddc _cAR